Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wild␣re: an expert assessment
Benjamin W. Abbott
(1, 2)
,
Jeremy Jones
,
Edward Schuur
,
F. Stuart Chapin
,
William Bowden
,
M. Syndonia Bret-Harte
,
Howard Epstein
,
Michael Flannigan
,
Tamara K. Harms
,
Teresa Hollingsworth
,
Michelle Mack
,
A. David Mcguire
,
Susan M. Natali
,
Adrian Rocha
,
Suzanne E. Tank
,
Merritt R. Turetsky
,
Jorien E. Vonk
,
Kimberly P. Wickland
,
George R. Aiken
,
Heather Alexander
,
Rainer M.W. Amon
,
Brian W. Benscoter
,
Yves Bergeron
,
Kevin Bishop
,
Olivier Blarquez
,
Ben Bond-Lamberty
,
Amy L. Breen
,
Ishi Buffam
,
Yihua Cai
,
Christopher Carcaillet
(3)
,
Sean K. Carey
(4)
,
Jing M. Chen
,
Han Y.H. Chen
,
Torben R. Christensen
,
Lee W. Cooper
,
J. Hans C. Cornelissen
,
William J. de Groot
,
Thomas H. Deluca
,
Ellen Dorrepaal
,
Ned Fetcher
,
Jacques C. Finlay
,
Bruce C. Forbes
,
Nancy H.F. French
,
Sylvie Gauthier
,
Martin P. Girardin
,
Scott Goetz
,
Johann G. Goldammer
,
Laura Gough
,
Paul Grogan
,
Laodong Guo
,
Philip E. Higuera
,
Larry Hinzman
,
Feng Sheng Hu
,
Gustaf Hugelius
,
Elchin Jafarov
,
Randi Jandt
,
Jill F Johnstone
,
Jan Karlsson
,
Eric S. Kasischke
,
Gerhard Kattner
,
Ryan Kelly
,
Frida Keuper
,
George W. Kling
,
Pirkko Kortelainen
,
Jari Kouki
,
Peter Kuhry
,
Hjalmar Laudon
,
Isabelle Laurion
,
Robie Macdonald
,
Paul J. Mann
,
Pertti J. Martikainen
,
James W. Mc Clelland
,
Ulf Molau
,
Steven F. Oberbauer
,
David Olefeldt
,
David Paré
,
Marc-André Parisien
,
Serge Payette
,
Changhui Peng
,
Oleg S. Pokrovsky
,
Edward B. Rastetter
,
Peter A. Raymond
,
Martha Raynolds
,
Guillermo Rein
,
James F. Reynolds
,
Martin Robard
,
Bredan M. Rogers
,
Christina Schädel
,
Kevin Schaefer
,
Inger K. Kappel Schmidt
,
Anatoly Shvidenko
,
Jasper Sky
,
Robert G.M. Spencer
,
Gregory Starr
,
Robert G. Striegl
,
Roman Teisserenc
,
Lars J Tranvik
,
Tarmo Virtanen
,
Jeffrey M. Welker
,
Sergei Zimov
Benjamin W. Abbott
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 973073
Jeremy Jones
- Function : Author
Edward Schuur
- Function : Author
F. Stuart Chapin
- Function : Author
William Bowden
- Function : Author
M. Syndonia Bret-Harte
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 762824
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5151-3947
Howard Epstein
- Function : Author
Michael Flannigan
- Function : Author
Tamara K. Harms
- Function : Author
Teresa Hollingsworth
- Function : Author
Michelle Mack
- Function : Author
A. David Mcguire
- Function : Author
Susan M. Natali
- Function : Author
Adrian Rocha
- Function : Author
Suzanne E. Tank
- Function : Author
Merritt R. Turetsky
- Function : Author
Jorien E. Vonk
- Function : Author
Kimberly P. Wickland
- Function : Author
George R. Aiken
- Function : Author
Heather Alexander
- Function : Author
Rainer M.W. Amon
- Function : Author
Brian W. Benscoter
- Function : Author
Yves Bergeron
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 757810
- ORCID : 0000-0003-3707-3687
- IdRef : 060764457
Kevin Bishop
- Function : Author
Olivier Blarquez
- Function : Author
Ben Bond-Lamberty
- Function : Author
Amy L. Breen
- Function : Author
Ishi Buffam
- Function : Author
Yihua Cai
- Function : Author
Christopher Carcaillet
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 992945
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6632-1507
- IdRef : 124831931
Jing M. Chen
- Function : Author
Han Y.H. Chen
- Function : Author
Torben R. Christensen
- Function : Author
Lee W. Cooper
- Function : Author
J. Hans C. Cornelissen
- Function : Author
William J. de Groot
- Function : Author
Thomas H. Deluca
- Function : Author
Ellen Dorrepaal
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 905702
Ned Fetcher
- Function : Author
Jacques C. Finlay
- Function : Author
Bruce C. Forbes
- Function : Author
Nancy H.F. French
- Function : Author
Sylvie Gauthier
- Function : Author
Martin P. Girardin
- Function : Author
Scott Goetz
- Function : Author
Johann G. Goldammer
- Function : Author
Laura Gough
- Function : Author
Paul Grogan
- Function : Author
Laodong Guo
- Function : Author
Philip E. Higuera
- Function : Author
Larry Hinzman
- Function : Author
Feng Sheng Hu
- Function : Author
Gustaf Hugelius
- Function : Author
Elchin Jafarov
- Function : Author
Randi Jandt
- Function : Author
Jill F Johnstone
- Function : Author
Jan Karlsson
- Function : Author
Eric S. Kasischke
- Function : Author
Gerhard Kattner
- Function : Author
Ryan Kelly
- Function : Author
Frida Keuper
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 905701
George W. Kling
- Function : Author
Pirkko Kortelainen
- Function : Author
Jari Kouki
- Function : Author
Peter Kuhry
- Function : Author
Hjalmar Laudon
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 776321
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6058-1466
Isabelle Laurion
- Function : Author
Robie Macdonald
- Function : Author
Paul J. Mann
- Function : Author
Pertti J. Martikainen
- Function : Author
James W. Mc Clelland
- Function : Author
Ulf Molau
- Function : Author
Steven F. Oberbauer
- Function : Author
David Olefeldt
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 777379
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5976-1475
David Paré
- Function : Author
Marc-André Parisien
- Function : Author
Serge Payette
- Function : Author
Changhui Peng
- Function : Author
Oleg S. Pokrovsky
- Function : Author
Edward B. Rastetter
- Function : Author
Peter A. Raymond
- Function : Author
Martha Raynolds
- Function : Author
Guillermo Rein
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 922569
James F. Reynolds
- Function : Author
Martin Robard
- Function : Author
Bredan M. Rogers
- Function : Author
Christina Schädel
- Function : Author
Kevin Schaefer
- Function : Author
Inger K. Kappel Schmidt
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 903011
Anatoly Shvidenko
- Function : Author
Jasper Sky
- Function : Author
Robert G.M. Spencer
- Function : Author
Gregory Starr
- Function : Author
Robert G. Striegl
- Function : Author
Roman Teisserenc
- Function : Author
- PersonId : 744511
- IdHAL : roman-teisserenc
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2440-040X
- IdRef : 191880019
Lars J Tranvik
- Function : Author
Tarmo Virtanen
- Function : Author
Jeffrey M. Welker
- Function : Author
Sergei Zimov
- Function : Author
Abstract
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wild␣re, and hydrologic carbon ␣ux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identi␣ed water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous ␣ndings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Origin : Publisher files allowed on an open archive
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